Impact of Electric Cars in Different Regions

By Arjun Bhatia

Over the last decade, the electric car market has grown from almost nonexistence to nearly two million annual sales in 2019. This trend is expected to continue, with Deloitte predicting a 32% share of all new car sales being electric by 2030 [1]. Electric vehicles (EVs) carry plenty of benefits, the most marketable one often being the idea that the consumers are doing a great service to the environment, and for good reason. EVs, as the name implies, run entirely on electricity, having no tailpipe emissions their entire lives. A commonly overlooked fact is that the energy still needs to come from somewhere. In addition to this, the carbon cost of manufacturing and disposing of these automobiles is often written off as negligible. In this article, we are going to look at the environmental costs and benefits of EVs to figure out just how ‘green’ they are.

The most obvious place to start is the design process. When modern engineers help bring a new product to market, they perform a life-cycle assessment (LCA). The LCA, bounded by an international standard, shows the entire picture of a product’s life, including the production of raw materials, manufacturing process, consumer usage, disposal, and potential recycling. At every step, there are different environmental costs. The LCA becomes particularly important for something like an electric car, where one of the main appeals is its carbon-free nature [2].

Figure 1: Life-Cycle Assessment diagram. Original image can be found here.

Beginning with manufacturing, the main difference between an EV and a standard gasoline-burning vehicle is the battery pack. This is also the greatest source of carbon emissions for an electric vehicle. The actual impact of manufacturing is directly correlated to the location of the factory, for more than one reason. The first being differences in power grid mixes, or the percentage of energy that comes from carbon-free sources. The other factor is efficiency of the manufacturing process [3]. For example, a study from Tsinghua University found that batteries produced in the United States produce 65% fewer emissions than those produced in China. While the two test locations had similar power grid structures, the factories in China used different chemistries and less efficient processes in the manufacturing of battery anodes and aluminum [4].  

Once the consumer has the electric vehicle in their possession, the carbon footprint is determined almost entirely by the grid they are charging it in. Since almost all grids are in some part renewable, it is almost always better for the planet to drive an EV. With gasoline cars, 100% of the used energy is carbon-burning, whereas charging an EV from a 60% carbon burning grid is still less carbon intensive. Most of the electric cars being sold today produce half as many carbon emissions as their gasoline counterparts over their lifetimes, even with manufacturing considered. Additionally, EVs tend to offset their manufacturing costs within 6 to 16 months of driving off the lot, which is remarkably young for an automobile [5]. There is one caveat here, however, and that is coal-burning power plants. While petroleum and natural gas plants produce about the same amount of carbon to charge batteries as equivalent gasoline cars would, coal is extremely inefficient, resulting in a deeper footprint. This issue is particularly prevalent in India, the second most populous nation, where coal-burning power grows paradoxically alongside electric vehicle growth [6]. Even in some US states, like Wyoming or Utah, the prevalence of coal makes EVs only marginally better than gasoline, and alternatives like hybrids are better [7]. However, this is a perspective from today, and going electric is going to be a generation-long project.

In terms of recycling, there is some difficulty discussing exactly how this stage of the car’s life cycle will affect its environmental footprint, as almost all the electric cars in existence are still quite young. However, between 2021 and 2030, it is estimated that 12.85 million tons of lithium will need to be disposed of due to aging EVs, and similar amounts will have to be mined. This disposed lithium tends to end up in landfills where it can leach into the environment [8]. There is a clear economic incentive to recycle batteries, especially with the cost of new lithium ranging around $15 000 per ton [3]. Battery giants like China are investing in research and technology to recycle batteries with as much efficiency as possible, not just for the environmental benefit, but also to take advantage of an industry to be worth nearly $45 billion by 2030 [9]. These advancements will keep waste lithium out of landfills and into new vehicles.

All in all, buying an electric car is not as clear-cut as it seems, but it is beneficial to the environment, spare a few countries. It is also important to note that electric cars have a lifespan of 10 to 20 years, which is plenty of time for more carbon intensive grids to catch up and for recycling processes to keep improving. Even if electric vehicles are only marginally better than gasoline ones today, that margin will keep increasing as technology advances. 

A common theme on this blog is innovation, and how it goes hand-in-hand with a carbon-neutral future. Once again, going electric is going to be a long-term project, combining science and engineering knowledge with improvements in manufacturing. Alongside this, governments need to keep working - and they have started - to enact policy which can guide these plans, towards a greener grid, cleaner production, and a more sustainable way of getting around.

References

[1]    “Electric vehicle trends | Deloitte Insights.” https://www2.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/focus/future-of-mobility/electric-vehicle-trends-2030.html (accessed Feb. 23, 2021).

[2]    “ISO 14044:2006(en), Environmental management — Life cycle assessment — Requirements and guidelines.” https://www.iso.org/obp/ui/#iso:std:iso:14044:ed-1:v1:en (accessed Feb. 23, 2021).

[3]    D. Hall and N. Lutsey, “Effects of battery manufacturing on electric vehicle life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions,” 2018, doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/11/5/054010.

[4]    H. Hao, Z. Mu, S. Jiang, Z. Liu, and F. Zhao, “GHG Emissions from the Production of Lithium-Ion Batteries for Electric Vehicles in China,” Sustainability, vol. 9, no. 4, p. 504, Apr. 2017, doi: 10.3390/su9040504.

[5]    “Gasoline vs Electric—Who Wins on Lifetime Global Warming Emissions? We Found Out - Union of Concerned Scientists.” https://blog.ucsusa.org/rachael-nealer/gasoline-vs-electric-global-warming-emissions-953 (accessed Feb. 23, 2021).

[6]    “A Twist in the Tale: Electric Vehicles Will Worsen India’s Pollution Crisis.” https://thewire.in/environment/electric-vehicles-lithium-ion-batteries-coal-power (accessed Feb. 23, 2021).

[7]    “Alternative Fuels Data Center: Emissions from Hybrid and Plug-In Electric Vehicles.” https://afdc.energy.gov/vehicles/electric_emissions.html(accessed Feb. 23, 2021).

[8]    “The Environmental Impact of Lithium Batteries - IER.” https://www.instituteforenergyresearch.org/renewable/the-environmental-impact-of-lithium-batteries/ (accessed Feb. 27, 2021).

[9] “China to ‘dominate recycling and second life battery market worth US$45bn by 2030’ | Energy Storage News.” https://www.energy-storage.news/news/china-to-dominate-recycling-and-a-second-life-battery-market-worth-us45bn-b (accessed Feb. 27, 2021).